Why Netflix Wants WB — And Why MAGA, Actors & Old Hollywood Are Freaking Out

WEBVTT

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Of course we stream once a week and of course

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the day after we stream Thursday at 8 p .m. Pacific

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time big huge news breaks the next day Which

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annoys me because then we can't talk about it

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on stream So We have been talking about and covering

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this story for a while Warner Brothers had said

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hey, we're open to the idea of an acquisition

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yada yada yada And then there was some informal

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bids made by Netflix and Paramount and Comcast.

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And then Paramount sent a really stupid letter

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the day before this was announced to Warner Brothers

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being like, well, there's some shenanigans going

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on and we're close to the administration. Be

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ashamed if anything happened to this deal. Well,

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the deal is happening. And I'm putting that in

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air quotes for right now. December 5th, Netflix

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and Warner Bros. announced that they have come

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into a definitive agreement under which Netflix

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will acquire Warner Bros. including its film

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and television studios, HBO Max and HBO. This

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is from the Netflix press release. The cash and

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stock value of this transaction $7 .75 per share

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for a total enterprise value of $82 .7 billion.

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dollars the deal is expected to close after the

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previously announced separation of WBD's global

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networks division, which is like discovering

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all those channels, into a new publicly traded

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company, which is expected to complete in Q3

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of 2026. So again, we have been talking about

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this one for a long time. We've kind of gone

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back and forth on this. I think privately you

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and I were both kind of hoping Apple was going

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to make kind of an 11th hour offer, given the

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stuff that Apple and Warner Bros. done together

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and Apple has the money. That didn't happen.

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Netflix got them. So just before we get into

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what Netflix is saying, obviously there's been

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a lot of reaction on the internet about this.

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And we don't want, we're not trying to be the

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typical reaction. Like I don't want to just be

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like, this guy is falling. So Jay, first, what

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was your first like reaction when you heard this

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news? And then kind of now that you've simmered

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on it for a second, what is your first thoughts

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about this? Yeah, so my first first reaction

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is like pretty much there are worse companies

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to acquire right like we talked about this a

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Week ago two weeks ago. Like we did not want

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paramount to acquire WB. So that hasn't happened

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yet. Obviously, you know as you mentioned, they

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are really close to the Trump administration.

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So we'll see how that actually plays out. But

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yeah, my initial reaction was like, okay, could

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be worse. Could be worse. Yes. And yeah, we were

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both of the opinion that Paramount getting it

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was bad. Now, again, to clarify both Jay and

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I's kind of general philosophy on consolidation

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and stuff like that. I don't like corporate consolidation.

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I think it's bad for every industry. I think

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Jay agrees with that statement, right? We were

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not fans of anybody acquiring WB, but we also

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live in reality, right? And WB is a publicly

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traded company and these things happen and they

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have a fiduciary duty to their shareholders,

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et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. So as much as

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we would like for them to not be acquired. We

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knew that was not going to happen weeks ago.

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It was going to happen. Paramount's recent moves

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and kind of what Ellison's doing and how close

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they are to the Trump administration. Dick in

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mouth would probably be an appropriate statement

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for what that is. Right. I. Yeah, we didn't want

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that. The the obvious downside to this obviously

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is that Netflix and Ted Sarandos their CEO has

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always been critical of theaters They don't do

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a lot Netflix very rarely releases their stuff

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at theater when they do they do it for short

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stints and it's kind of a gimmick Here's what

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Netflix is saying, okay? And again, this is all

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from their their press release, right? They're

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saying that this this helps Netflix Warner Brothers

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Studios are world class, which I don't think

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you can deny. HBO and HBO Max have an amazing

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brand as far as prestige television going all

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the way back to The Wire, The Sopranos, Sex and

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the City, Game of Thrones, The Last of Us, all

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those shows. They think it gives more choice

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and greater value. They think it will help the

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entertainment industry. That's debatable. More

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opportunities for the creative community. Again,

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debatable and more value for shareholders. Of

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that, I am I have no doubt. More value for the

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shareholders, I'm sure. Let's take the optimistic

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view. What Sarandos has said is that Warner Brothers

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will continue operating independently, right?

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They've said that the creative teams like DeLuca

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and Abdi, James Gunn and Peter Safran, et cetera,

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will stay in place, right? Which is good. I think

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that those are good moves. We also covered this

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earlier this year. Warner Brothers set records

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this year. Warner Brothers had how many how many

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films over 40 million in a row? Seven consecutive

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films this year that opened to more than 40 million

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dollars at the at the box office. Right. Everything

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from Minecraft to Superman to Conjuring. opened

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above 40 million dollars, weapons opened above

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40 million dollars. So the the the the non pessimistic

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view of this is and I think, Jay, you would agree

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with this. Netflix doesn't know how to make movies.

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Their movies are terrible. And they overspend

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on that electric state movie with Chris Pratt

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was 300 million dollars they spent on that. That's

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ridiculous. What was the other one? They're just

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not good at making movies, okay? They also have

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never had a distribution pipeline, so even if

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they would have wanted to put it in theaters,

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they don't know how to do it. What they're getting

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with Warner Brothers is a distribution pipeline

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and a whole big history of successful film. So,

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to me, the optimistic view is that Sarandos is

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going, look. We don't know how to release movies

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in theaters. We know that people want us to do

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it They'd already Netflix had made the deal with

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Greta Gerwig that Narnia movies coming out in

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theaters Right now that you add Warner Brothers

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to that mix. What does that change for that movie,

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right? There's so that's the optimistic views

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that they that Netflix is looking at this and

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going we don't know how to do this So instead

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of trying to invent it whole cloth we're gonna

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We're going to buy somebody who knows how to

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do it. The other optimistic view of this is that

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they're not killing a studio. If Paramount and

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Warner Brothers merge or Comcast Universal and

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Warner Brothers merge, we're down one more studio.

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That's one less of the major studios. Netflix

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is in a studio, not really. And so we didn't

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lose anything from that perspective. What are

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your thoughts on that kind of like that optimistic

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view? Yeah. I 100 % agree with that. I'm also

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trying to real quick, I'm going to pull up an

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example that I learned about an NBA school. Yes,

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so I, I do agree with that. And also, it's not

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uncommon for companies to buy other companies

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and then just, they might change their process

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and procedures to make them more efficient or

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profitable, but They keep that company running

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in place. So, for instance, if you pull up a

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chart of who owns what beer companies, you'll

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see that the same company that owns Bush Light,

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Natural Light, Bud Light, like they're all owned

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by the same company. A .B. and Beth. Yep. And

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then also Modelo is owned by the same company

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that owns Pacifico and Corona. Like it's very

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common. And I think Netflix isn't going to Acquire

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WB and then just kill WB just not have them release

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movies on the movie theater I think they're going

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to acquire net acquire WB and then just let WB

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continue operating But then they have their funnel

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to get their movies into theaters and and also

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funnel everything to Netflix, right? You're never

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gonna see a Warner Brothers movie on peacock

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ever again I'm joking mostly about that. Those

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guys cross -pollinate all the time Okay So that's

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kind of the optimistic view. Now the other thing

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that we gotta look at is, is this gonna actually

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happen? Because yes, while the deal has been

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announced, the other thing that nobody's talking

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about is, will this deal actually happen? So

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Jay, you've got some notes about the next steps,

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right? So run us through the next steps. Yeah,

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so they do have to do what is called an HSR filing

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with the Department of Justice Then the Department

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of Justice has 30 days to do an initial review

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and most likely they're going to file for an

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extended review And then all they have to do

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is just sit on their hands. They can sit on their

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hands for a year or longer They don't have to

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do anything with it And why would they do that?

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There's a lot of people looking at this deal

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So you have traditional old Hollywood that doesn't

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like this deal. You have the Ellison's, obviously

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the Trump administration. You got actors, you

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got state attorney generals who are looking at

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this from a consumer perspective. And right now,

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I think everyone's trying to decide like who

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is on what side. And also keep in mind a co -founder

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of Netflix, Reed Hastings. Hastings. Hastings.

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It has been very anti Trump and has put a lot

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of money and support into governor Newsom So

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and you can you can see this in this initial

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news report from CNBC where it was breaking.

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We'll show you that now We got regulation to

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worry about and approvals not just here in the

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states, but elsewhere Let's bring in Amon Javer's

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David stick around Amon as for the president

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Whether he wants to disrupt this deal and we

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know about his ties to Ellison's father talk

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a bit about that, too Yeah, Carl, we're getting

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some news here our first reaction now from the

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administration I was just in contact moments

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ago with a senior administration official who

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tells me that the administration's view of this

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deal can be characterized as heavy skepticism

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So even if even if they want this deal to go

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through you're right they can sit on this for

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a year now Do I personally think that Ted Sarandos

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and David Zaslav will show up at the Oval Office

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bearing out a white Netflix or gold Netflix logos

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and give them to the president? Yeah. And we've

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talked about this a lot. Trump listens to whoever

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the last guy that talked to him was. And yeah,

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I'm sure this is pissing the Ellisons off. I'm

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sure they're going to sue over this. So again,

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you have the HSR, which is a 30 -day, then they

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go, OK, we actually need more than 30 days to

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look at an $82 billion deal. They do the extender

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review. And then if the Ellison's and or Comcast

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Universal decide to sue Netflix and Warner Brothers

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over the process, then this. Then if the Federal

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Trade Commission goes, no, you can't do it, then

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Warner Brothers and Netflix sues the DOJ and

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the Federal Trade Commission. And that one probably

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has to go all the way to SCOTUS. to determine

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if it's an antitrust violation. That being said,

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under any other administration, I'd be like,

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yeah, you might get him on antitrust. The thing

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I think saves this from antitrust is the thing

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that would have killed it if Paramount or Universal

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got it, which is you're already movie studios.

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Netflix has a strong argument from a trade perspective,

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from an FTC antitrust perspective to say, we're

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not like the other guys. We're a tech platform,

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man. That's what we are. And so we're going to

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acquire a studio now. I'm with you, A, even at

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the soonest that Netflix is saying, Netflix is

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saying Q3, 2026. So almost a year from now. Then

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you've still got the Federal Trade Commission,

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the Department of Justice, the Antitrust Division,

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the Department of Justice, the Trump administration,

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and everybody else who's going to stick their

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fingers in this whole thing. And so while it's

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interesting that this deal has been made, right?

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A, I don't think there's any guarantee it's going

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to happen. Do you? No. And I do want to go back

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and touch on a point that you you actually brought

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up about free trade. If this trade does not go

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through, this actually impacts free trade by

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a lot. I mean, from my understanding, Paramount

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offered less But also wanted CNN Netflix offered

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more without CNN So for them to go back and say

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like Netflix isn't going to get this deal and

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then it should go to Paramount is I think this

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is hugely like disturbing for the open market

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It is especially given the moose and this is

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one of the reasons you and I talked about we

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didn't want Paramount to get it Was when they

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acquired when when Skydance acquired Paramount?

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Ellison made some very controversial moves over

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at the CBS News division By putting Barry Weiss

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in charge of the CBS News division and there's

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been some questions about what's going on over

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there right now to the point where and we talked

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about this to the WGA which also represents on

00:14:13.039 --> 00:14:15.320
-air news people was like they were getting emails

00:14:15.320 --> 00:14:18.120
from Barry Weiss going what do you do very dogey

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emails and And and the WGA was like, don't answer

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those emails. Don't. Not until we know what's

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going on. Right. So, yeah, I'm. Top of my head,

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I still think it's a coin flip whether this deal

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goes through. Yeah. Obviously, the Ellison's

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are going to try to cancel it. They're in line

00:14:46.460 --> 00:14:49.590
with. the Trump administration. So I agree. I

00:14:49.590 --> 00:14:51.730
think it is. But I think Trump can be bribed

00:14:51.730 --> 00:14:53.769
by Netflix and Warner Brothers if they really

00:14:53.769 --> 00:14:57.210
want to do it. Yeah, that's that's also true.

00:14:59.409 --> 00:15:02.429
So, yeah, it's not. This is really interesting.

00:15:02.590 --> 00:15:06.169
You know, it's the announcement was made, but

00:15:06.169 --> 00:15:08.490
then like nothing is really set in stone as of

00:15:08.490 --> 00:15:14.889
right now. So. As as is normal. Right. These

00:15:14.889 --> 00:15:17.090
deals are not small. It's not like buying a house,

00:15:17.090 --> 00:15:19.210
you know, where you're closed in 45 days. This,

00:15:19.250 --> 00:15:21.889
you know, again, this is minimum a year from

00:15:21.889 --> 00:15:27.289
now. Now, again, on the on the pessimistic, you

00:15:27.289 --> 00:15:30.769
know, it is Netflix. Is it possible that Netflix

00:15:30.769 --> 00:15:32.429
is going to pull a Disney and what they just

00:15:32.429 --> 00:15:34.730
did with Hulu and just completely subsume HBO

00:15:34.730 --> 00:15:37.070
into their platform? Yeah, I think it's possible.

00:15:37.549 --> 00:15:39.450
Is it possible that Netflix, using the way that

00:15:39.450 --> 00:15:41.850
they have now, reduces the theatrical window

00:15:41.850 --> 00:15:44.909
from 45 to 30 days or even 15 days? Yeah, I think

00:15:44.909 --> 00:15:48.990
that's a problem. I don't want to downplay the

00:15:48.990 --> 00:15:52.289
people who are concerned about this move, right?

00:15:52.830 --> 00:15:55.039
Because there are... There are concerns to be

00:15:55.039 --> 00:15:58.580
had. And a lot of the optimistic side is you

00:15:58.580 --> 00:16:01.279
don't think Ted Sarandos is full of shit, which

00:16:01.279 --> 00:16:08.179
is debatable at best. Wouldn't you agree? Yeah,

00:16:08.740 --> 00:16:13.370
100 percent. I do agree. So. Obviously, we've

00:16:13.370 --> 00:16:15.129
been covering this one for a while. We'll continue

00:16:15.129 --> 00:16:17.090
covering the story. If you want to see more about

00:16:17.090 --> 00:16:19.629
it, we stream every Thursday at 8 p .m. Pacific

00:16:19.629 --> 00:16:21.590
Time right here on our YouTube channel or over

00:16:21.590 --> 00:16:24.769
on twitch .tv slash error code show so you can

00:16:24.769 --> 00:16:26.330
get our live stuff. If you want to interact with

00:16:26.330 --> 00:16:28.309
us directly, you can interact with us directly

00:16:28.309 --> 00:16:30.269
right there. But we're curious what you have

00:16:30.269 --> 00:16:32.929
to say about this. Is it a good thing? Is it

00:16:32.929 --> 00:16:34.490
a bad thing? Are we blowing everything out of

00:16:34.490 --> 00:16:37.029
proportion? Do we even think it's going to happen?

00:16:38.110 --> 00:16:42.679
Right. Who knows? Let us know what you think

00:16:42.679 --> 00:16:43.980
in the comments below.