Marvel Made $32B？! The “Dying Marvel” Narrative is Fake News - Error Code Show

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We've had a lot of folks all over the internet

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be like, Marvel is failing, Marvel is failing,

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and Marvel, oh, it's there, there, there. The

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thing about us fans is first off, we have weird

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short -term memory and we also have some weird

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Mandela effects that kind of happen with us.

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And so I want to talk about the business of the

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MCU as a franchise and what they really did.

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And because I'm a big nerd, I made a big spreadsheet,

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okay, yesterday. Why? Because I'm a nerd. Okay.

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So we're going to talk about this for a second,

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but just to kind of demonstrate my point, right?

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I'm going to bring up a movie, a couple of movies

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and nobody, no looking it up. All right. Okay.

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But what I want to bring up is a couple of points

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and Jay, without looking it up, how much move

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money, right? Did Captain America, the first

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Avenger, you remember Captain America, the first

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Avenger. That was a great movie. Right. It's

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great. Yeah. How much did it do at the box office?

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Oh, God, what year did that come out? Box office.

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2010. Oh, God, I don't know. 2010. OK, so that

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was early. That was that was definitely early.

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I'm going to say. I feel like it's going to be

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a very low number. I'm going to say 80. I'm going

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to say 80 million. OK, you're way off there.

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Right. But it did it did three hundred and seventy

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million and some change. Right. OK. Which was

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way less than Iron Man. Way less than stuff.

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Yeah. Chat was like five hundred billion. Nope.

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Three hundred and seventy, which, by the way,

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is less than Captain America, Brave New World

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or the Thunderbolts made in the box office. Right.

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It made less money than Thunderbolts did or Cap

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four. Okay, this is why I say if I would have

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said to you what made more money Captain America

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first Avenger or Captain America brave new world.

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What is your instinct? Say Captain America brave

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new world. Yeah, how much money did Captain Marvel

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make everybody wants to say Captain Marvel was

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a big old flop How much money did Captain Marvel

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make in the box office? Absolutely I I thought

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it was a flop. Everyone was mad. They're like,

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oh, we have a female superhero. Females can't

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be superheroes. Oh, this is so mad where it's

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woke. How much did Captain Marvel make at the

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box office? Well, now I now I'm worried about

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my numbers. Four hundred million. One point one

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billion dollars. Oh, wow. That is actually really

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surprising. OK, Captain Marvel. made $1 .1 billion

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in the box office. We don't remember. So now

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we're going to bring up my cool, cool spreadsheet.

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And we're going to look at the MCU phase by phase

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real quick. And what I did is I tallied every

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box office that has been done by phase. And how

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much money Marvel averaged per film by phase.

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We're going to talk about this real quick, okay?

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Phase one, Iron Man, Incredible Hulk, Iron Man

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2, Thor, Captain America, and the Avengers to

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close out phase one, right? Incredible Hulk,

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not necessarily a flop per se, okay? Because

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the budget wasn't that high. Not huge they averaged

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635 million per movie most of that dragged up

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by the 1 .5 billion that the Avengers made Okay

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Phase two it gets higher. We got Iron Man 3 Thor

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the Dark World, right? Captain America Winter

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Soldier Guardians of the Galaxy Avengers Age

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of Ultron and Ant -Man. Okay, and with it with

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phase two, they average 878 million eight almost

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eight hundred seventy nine million per flick

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okay now we keep going phase three this is where

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marvel hits its stride and this is where i think

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the mandela effect comes into play okay because

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phase three was banger after banger after banger

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after banger cap civil war dr strange guardians

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2 spider -man homecoming thor ragnarok black

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panther uh Avengers Infinity War, Ant -Man of

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the Wasp, Captain Marvel, Avengers Endgame, Spider

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-Man Far From Home. That was, that was phase

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three. Right? And they just blew it up. Okay?

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They just, it was huge. Huge. Okay? Because you

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had, what, six movies in phase three that did

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more than a billion dollars. Including Captain

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Marvel. Right? Phase four, they take, now here's

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the thing, and this is the thing that I want

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people to think about for the business of this

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thing. You weren't going to redo phase three

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in phase four, okay? Like you hit such a stride

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in phase three that anything was going to be

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a letdown after phase four, or after phase three.

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It just was. So you had Black Widow, Shang -Chi,

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Eternals, which I think Marvel really counts

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as its first financial flop because the budget

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was massive. on the Eternals and it did not do

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well in the box office. Only $402 million. Spider

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-Man, No Way Home, Doctor Strange, Will 2 vs.

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Madness, Thor, Love and Thunder, Black Panther,

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Wakanda Forever. That's all your Phase Four movies.

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$815 million per film. Okay. And then we get

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into Phase Five, which is the one that everybody

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kind of bluzz on, right? Ant -Man and the Wasp,

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Quantum Media, Guardians 3, Right? The Marvels,

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which did flop, it was their second real flop.

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Deadpool and Wolverine, Captain America Brave

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New World, and Thunderbolts. They're still averaging

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in that phase $610 million per film. Right? That's

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a lot of money. It's a lot of money. Is it a

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step down? Absolutely. Is Marvel worried about

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it? No. No, they're not. Not really. And now

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you've got the start of phase six, which started

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with Fantastic Four New Steps. I have got this

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highlighted at 491 million because it's not out

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of theaters yet, right? So as of yesterday, it

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was at 491 million, 904, 286. I think it's going

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to break 500, right? By the time it leaves this

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theatrical run. Yeah. So. For every film that

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they have made, they have gotten a total box

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office of $32 ,475 ,550 ,762 in 37 movies. $32

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billion. That is an average of $877 ,717 ,588

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per movie. Which brings me to kind of my greater

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point, okay Which is this Marvel is arguably

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the most successful film franchise that's ever

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been done There are 37 movies in and they've

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made 32 billion dollars, right? No, but I I cannot

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think of a scenario of anybody who's going to

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make that kind of a franchise run that Kevin

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Feige did and is still doing right like it's

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just it's not that now before chat hits me because

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i knew i knew somebody chat was going to go what

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about star wars okay star wars is the movie That

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Star Wars is the franchise that you could argue

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Has done better financially, right? Looking at

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the 11 wide release Star Wars movies that have

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been released. They've there's 11 movies They've

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grossed ten point three billion dollars for an

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average of nine hundred and forty million per

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movie Okay You can make an argument for Star

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Wars right but but You can make an argument for

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Star Wars But they don't have the track run of

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37 films that Marvel has and Star Wars has been

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around since 1977 the MCU started 2008 Okay in

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17 years. They've made 32 billion dollars. So

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what's that about 1 .8 billion a year in revenue?

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So so that's where where I want to kick it over

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to you Jay, right? And ask, when I break it down

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this way, and based on kind of a lot of the commentary

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we've heard and things like that, what does this

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make you think about this? As far as franchises

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go, putting your MBA, working on MBA hat on.

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Well, I would say, I think it would be Oh, I

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think it'd be a little unfair only to look at

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movies because I will say I do remember Star

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Wars when I was a kid and Episode 1 2 3 came

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out There was so much merch that came along with

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it like Star Wars Pepsi cans. That's people still

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have by the way Star Wars everything So much

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Star Wars So I think Star Wars also brought in

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a lot of merch. Star Wars also has this like

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never ending spinoff TV series going on right

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now, both animated and live action. Looking just

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at movies, I would say Star Wars should be doing

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better. With less movies, because. They did start

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in nineteen seventy seven. And what you're going

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to run into is now you're going to have parents

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taking their children to go see Star Wars. So

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you have that kind of already that like nostalgic

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like, oh, like I grew up watching Star Wars.

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I want to take my kids to watch Star Wars. Marvel

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coming out. What? 2010, you said. Don't super

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have that or it's not. Well established yet.

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I would say I'm here soon. I think it'll start

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kicking in but Yeah, um, that's my thought, okay

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So I'm going to address a couple of things in

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the chat really quick. People who are asking

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questions that are tangential to this. All right,

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Superman, which again has not finished this theatrical

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run. You can still see it in theaters. As of

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today is at six hundred and six million six fifty

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eight seven ninety two worldwide. So it's well

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into profitability. It's 60 million over where

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it needed to be profitability wise. I think we

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talked about that a couple of weeks ago. It's

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doing fine for a brand new DCU where the DCEU

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ran the franchise into the fucking dirt, right?

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And you've got to build back a lot of goodwill

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from the audience. Superman did better than it

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needed to to do that. It's a very good start

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for the DCU. Very good start. to answer another

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question. People are talking about adjusting

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for inflation. I used to think of it that way.

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And then I hit again. I talk about this podcast

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a lot. Mr. John Campia, he does a really good

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editorial on why he doesn't use adjusted for

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inflation. And I agree with it. Right. So for

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the longer version of what I'm about to say,

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go watch his editorial on this. But the fact

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of the matter is, is the reason it's hard to

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do adjust for inflation is this. If you look

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at adjusted for inflation, people talk about

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Gone with the Wind, right? Okay. How long was

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Gone with the Wind in theaters? Probably like

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36 years, right? It was like the only movie.

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Two and a half years. It was in theaters for

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two and a half years. Nothing's in theaters for

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two and a half years. Who knows how much money

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can be made? And what that brings about is this.

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At various iterations of time, Where people spent

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money and where people spent their entertainment

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hours varied heavily, okay? Movies now are not

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just competing with other movies. It's not like

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the 1990s when episode one came out where everybody

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had a smartphone in their pocket and they could

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spend their time watching Netflix, YouTube and

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not leave the fucking house, right? In a post

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COVID era with the cost of movie tickets these

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days and the number of tickets that are sold,

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et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. trying to figure

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out all the various economic factors that go

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into should we adjust this for inflation? And

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again, if Gone With The Wind came out today,

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would it sell as many tickets as it did in the

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1930s when it came out? And I have to say the

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answer is probably no. Right. So that's why I,

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you know, using just the raw box office numbers

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is still probably just the best metric to use.

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The other question is do they do well in the

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theater take the Star Wars sequels because everyone

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goes to a movie like that hoping to do something

00:14:15.080 --> 00:14:18.100
good So here's the thing and this is you could

00:14:18.100 --> 00:14:20.919
pretty well bear this out If people don't like

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a movie, they don't go back and movies people

00:14:22.820 --> 00:14:26.799
don't go back to don't make billions Right. You

00:14:26.799 --> 00:14:35.779
can say rightfully that the the fandom as we

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move through the sequel trilogy It lost steam.

00:14:40.159 --> 00:14:44.460
Force Awakens did two billion plus. Episode eight

00:14:44.460 --> 00:14:47.000
only did one point three billion. Episode nine

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only did a billion. And so they went down as

00:14:53.299 --> 00:14:59.379
it went. So. Again, it's Star Wars, so everybody's

00:14:59.379 --> 00:15:01.240
going to it's cultural. Everyone's going to see

00:15:01.240 --> 00:15:05.320
it, but you see it with episode seven. Everybody

00:15:05.320 --> 00:15:08.139
went back and back and back and back and back

00:15:08.139 --> 00:15:11.360
to see episode seven Whereas you didn't get that

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kind of run back with episode eight and nine

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It was one of those were just everybody fucking

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saw it. So that's that's where I would break

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that down There's also yes somebody else brought

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this in there's a fewer second -run theaters

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I don't know if you remember this when you were

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a kid Jay But I know I know it was a thing when

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I was a kid where you had primary run theaters

00:15:30.320 --> 00:15:31.779
where they did their first part of their theatrical

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run and then second run theaters where After

00:15:34.759 --> 00:15:36.600
they left the primary there was still time to

00:15:36.600 --> 00:15:39.320
go see them in theaters a kind of budget theaters,

00:15:39.320 --> 00:15:44.220
right? Those don't really exist anymore. They're

00:15:44.220 --> 00:15:49.460
gone. Those businesses just don't happen Well,

00:15:49.460 --> 00:15:53.159
it also just doesn't make sense because now we

00:15:53.159 --> 00:15:57.799
Now you can get movies to streaming services

00:15:57.799 --> 00:16:02.000
as well as out on blu -ray or whatever a lot

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quicker than those if that's why that kind of

00:16:05.220 --> 00:16:10.379
the cheaper Market kind of for moviegoers kind

00:16:10.379 --> 00:16:13.159
of existed because there is such a long period

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before they would come out on VHS six months

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on average And that's the other thing is a lot

00:16:21.789 --> 00:16:24.490
of the the movie studios and now Disney I think

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has learned from this you'll saw it last year,

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right? Where they started extending their theatrical

00:16:32.149 --> 00:16:33.990
runs again and going look we're not putting this

00:16:33.990 --> 00:16:36.769
on Disney plus Thunderbolts just got to Disney

00:16:36.769 --> 00:16:42.769
plus I think this week right and They have really

00:16:42.769 --> 00:16:45.070
extended their theatrical windows and I think

00:16:45.070 --> 00:16:46.409
that that's good because a lot of the studios

00:16:46.409 --> 00:16:49.580
have trained the audience Eh, I'll just wait

00:16:49.580 --> 00:16:51.960
until it comes to streaming in two months, which

00:16:51.960 --> 00:16:54.879
I think is one of the reasons why the raw number

00:16:54.879 --> 00:17:01.139
of tickets go down, right? And yeah, movie theaters

00:17:01.139 --> 00:17:03.159
these days are a real hard proposition when the

00:17:03.159 --> 00:17:04.640
cost of tickets, half the cost of voting in the

00:17:04.640 --> 00:17:06.039
movie, I'd rather just wait and buy the movie.

00:17:06.180 --> 00:17:08.000
And I think that that's a lot of people's attitude

00:17:08.000 --> 00:17:10.900
now. And I think that's why you're seeing certain

00:17:10.900 --> 00:17:14.559
movies flop, right? Where unless it's like an

00:17:14.559 --> 00:17:18.440
event movie, not as many people are going. Right.

00:17:18.460 --> 00:17:20.380
I've seen a lot of good movies in the in the

00:17:20.380 --> 00:17:22.420
theaters. We've talked about this much this year

00:17:22.420 --> 00:17:25.160
that were great movies that fucking nobody saw.

00:17:28.380 --> 00:17:34.359
That sucks. So but would you argue, do you think

00:17:34.359 --> 00:17:37.240
that what Feige has done with Marvel can be replicated?

00:17:38.599 --> 00:17:42.700
Can be replicated. Thirty seven movies averaging

00:17:42.700 --> 00:17:46.019
almost a billion dollars a movie, almost 900

00:17:46.019 --> 00:17:51.400
million, let's be fair. I, I think it, I personally

00:17:51.400 --> 00:17:55.839
think it could, but I don't think anyone is going

00:17:55.839 --> 00:18:02.240
to have the drive to do it, to be honest, because

00:18:02.240 --> 00:18:06.140
to go through that many movies, I mean, keep

00:18:06.140 --> 00:18:09.039
in mind a lot of people like to kind of come

00:18:09.039 --> 00:18:12.980
in, get their success off of one project or maybe

00:18:12.980 --> 00:18:15.420
a couple of projects. They move on to something

00:18:15.420 --> 00:18:22.160
else. And you need some sort of consistency.

00:18:22.779 --> 00:18:26.000
And I think that's kind of what DC has kind of

00:18:26.000 --> 00:18:30.759
really struggled with. But yeah, I think it could

00:18:30.759 --> 00:18:33.740
be done. I don't think anyone actually wants

00:18:33.740 --> 00:18:36.839
to put in the work to do it, though. That makes

00:18:36.839 --> 00:18:41.420
sense. It absolutely makes sense. And again,

00:18:41.559 --> 00:18:44.640
that's why, again, I could say you can arguably

00:18:44.640 --> 00:18:47.980
say that the MCU is the most the most successful

00:18:47.980 --> 00:18:52.940
franchise of all time. Right. It just is. And

00:18:52.940 --> 00:18:56.119
anybody who thinks that, you know, the other

00:18:56.119 --> 00:18:57.559
thing I wanted to break down on this, and this

00:18:57.559 --> 00:19:00.119
is, again, why I think it is. Let's look at what's

00:19:00.119 --> 00:19:06.779
coming. All right. Phase six. OK. We have Fantastic

00:19:06.779 --> 00:19:10.339
Four First Steps, which is out. Right. The next

00:19:10.339 --> 00:19:13.299
movie is Spider -Man Brand New Day. Does anybody

00:19:13.299 --> 00:19:15.240
think that movie is not going to make a billion

00:19:15.240 --> 00:19:28.599
dollars? Avengers Doomsday. So far, an Avengers

00:19:28.599 --> 00:19:34.700
movie has never not made a billion dollars. Marvel

00:19:34.700 --> 00:19:38.700
has a hold spot on a movie, on a film next July

00:19:38.700 --> 00:19:41.329
that nobody knows what it is. Nobody knows if

00:19:41.329 --> 00:19:46.089
it's a hold spot or what they're doing. I suspect

00:19:46.089 --> 00:19:49.410
it's Doctor Strange 3. Right. And it's going

00:19:49.410 --> 00:19:51.170
to come out between Doomsday and Secret Wars,

00:19:51.230 --> 00:19:54.390
much like Ant -Man and the Wasp came out between

00:19:54.390 --> 00:19:57.150
Infinity War and Endgame and introduced the quantum

00:19:57.150 --> 00:19:58.769
tunnel and the quantum realm and all the shit

00:19:58.769 --> 00:20:03.890
they needed for for Endgame. I think it's I think

00:20:03.890 --> 00:20:05.869
it's the next Doctor Strange. But again, and

00:20:05.869 --> 00:20:07.490
do you think Avengers Secret Wars is not going

00:20:07.490 --> 00:20:15.279
to make a billion dollars? Okay They're gonna

00:20:15.279 --> 00:20:16.819
average more than a billion dollars in phase

00:20:16.819 --> 00:20:24.619
six per movie Okay, he's gonna be up right around

00:20:24.619 --> 00:20:26.880
40 billion by the time he gets to the end of

00:20:26.880 --> 00:20:35.920
phase six So Yeah, anyway, let us know what you

00:20:35.920 --> 00:20:39.210
think in the comments below Do you think it's

00:20:39.210 --> 00:20:41.789
the most successful franchise of all time or

00:20:41.789 --> 00:20:44.190
what do you guys think? Let us know